Employment Predictions

Job Predictions for 2007

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Economy is shrinking with US Hiring managers tightening their belts. The increase in the price of petrol products will cause people to spend less on other areas.

Continued strength of inflation means that the fed will not cut interest rates, but will in fact raise them to counter weakness in the dollar. China is grumbling about holding a one trillion dollar surplus that it cannot or will not spend on American goods.

The twelve million illegal aliens keep wages low in the US. The minimum wage has not moved in years while the cost of a new house is sky high and gasoline keeps getting more expensive. Yet with such a huge pool of low skill low wage labor, employers can afford to be picky.

On the other hand, the high wage high skill high tech jobs are being exported to India. It is hard to blame US companies for firing a $30,000/year computer programmer when you can get one in India for $3,000/year with no benefits like health insurance. Information technology professionals should expect strong competition and lower salaries in the next few years. The writing is on the wall.

In addition to high unemployment, salaries will continue to shrink for those few lucky enough to still have jobs as companies cut costs aggressively to remain competitive in a global market. Many small companies will shutdown, others will simply move offshore completely.

Many large companies are moving R&D to low cost locales so expect less engineering and technical jobs in the future. Sometimes companies, in an effort to save money, are replacing high dollar US PhDs with a non college educated persons in low wage countries. The future looks dim for US IT professionals.

The value of a college degree will decline drastically in the next few years as offshore outsourcing causes massive unemployment in formerly secure high wage high skill jobs. Even legal research is being outsourced to India.

Offshore outsourcing of white collar jobs is only part of the picture. The US manufacturing base is almost gone. The few factories that remain are being torn down and sent overseas.

As factories are dismantled and shipped to China the future looks gloomy for the US. One of the few bright spots is health care. Aging baby boomers will need more medical attention in the years to come. The outlook for medical care providers looks bright indeed.

One trend that I have seen in the future is that the big malls will close down. These dinosaurs could not adapt to the new environment. They could not compete with internet stores. This leads to a lot of retail unemployment in the future as the retail stores around the mall also close down due to a domino effect. Restaurants around the mall that lived off mall traffic will also close down. Banks will close branches as more transactions are done over the internet.

If you think that this means more jobs for US web page designers - THINK AGAIN. Most web pages are designed in India by workers making 50 cents an hour!

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